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untanglingwebs
El Supremo
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Wed May 28, 2014 11:15 am |
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untanglingwebs
El Supremo
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Poll: Peters leads Land in U.S. Senate race, thanks to women voters
8:40 PM, May 27, 2014 | Comments
By Todd Spangler
Detroit Free Press Washington Staff
WASHINGTON — Terri Lynn Land contends in a television ad that she knows more about women than Gary Peters does, but between the two U.S. Senate candidates, he’s the one enjoying female voter support — and by a considerable margin.
Really.
Peters, a Democratic congressman from Bloomfield Township, held a 44%-38% lead over Republican Land with 18% undecided in an exclusive poll of 600 likely Michigan voters done for the Free Press, WXYZ-TV (Channel 7) and our statewide media polling partners EPIC-MRA of Lansing May 17-20. And the overall margin is largely attributable to a whopping 14-percentage-point advantage Peters had among women.
Land, a former Michigan secretary of state and the de facto Republican nominee to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Carl Levin, had a 5-point lead among men, who made up a slightly smaller proportion of the survey sample. The two, who will meet in the general election in November, will take part in a forum at the Detroit Regional Chamber’s Mackinac Policy Conference on Wednesday morning at 10:30 — but it’s not a debate.
The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, showed a 6-point improvement for Peters since February, when he trailed Land 41%-38%.
“The ads by Peters (and his allies) attacking Land on women’s issues have had more of an impact in terms of the race than the Obamacare attacks on Peters have benefitted Land,” said Bernie Porn, EPIC-MRA’s pollster.
Land is expected to try to close that gap among women — Peters’ lead of 47%-33% with 20% undecided indicates there could be room to do so — but she’ll have to do so in the face of repeated reminders of her support of Republican policies being portrayed by Democrats as hurtful to women.
Democratic groups have hit hard at Land saying policies she supports could restrict women’s access to health care; last month, President Barack Obama also chided Land without mentioning her by name for saying women were “more interested in flexibility in a job” than pay equity.
Land responded with an ad called “Really?” in which she patiently looked at the camera and her watch while asking viewers to consider who knew more about women, her or Peters.
“As a woman I might know a little bit more about women than Gary Peters,” she said.
Some voters disagree, in some cases turned off by support Land has received from outside groups including Americans for Prosperity, an organization linked to conservative backers Charles and David Koch. AFP has spent several million dollars in Michigan on ads including those hitting Peters for his support of the Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare.
“The Koch brothers have put so much money into trying to win over Michigan that anything that has something to do with them I don’t want any part of,” said Kristin Ratynski, a 66-year-old retired medical assistant and self-described independent voter living in Highland Park.
The Affordable Care Act may have its problems, she said, but they can be fixed.
And the attacks on Peters — estimates show Republicans outspending Democrats so far in the race — for voting for the ACA as a congressman may have limited impact: While the poll showed 53% of Michiganders opposed Obamacare, only 36% said it would make a difference in how they voted.
Land led significantly, 71%-12%, among those voters. But Peters held a sizeable lead, 78%-12%, among the 26% of those surveyed who said support of the ACA made it more likely they would vote for a candidate. More importantly, he led 50%-25%, with 25% undecided, among the 35% of those surveyed who said it would make no difference in how they voted.
The poll wasn’t all good news for Peters. The independent vote — making up 19% of the electorate in the EPIC-MRA sample — was a virtual three-way split among Land, Peters and undecided. And in Oakland County, Peters’ home county and considered vital territory by both campaigns, it was a virtual tie, with Peters having just a 47%-45% edge. (The margin of error would be much larger than 4 points for county-by-county results, however.)
Scott Lumsden, a 51-year-old project manager for General Motors who lives in Rochester Hills, is an independent voter who said he typically votes Democratic, but is supporting Land — for now at least — as someone who doesn’t seem to him to be “obsessed with taxes and abortion.”
“I think she’s more what I call a common sense Republican and that’s who I’d like to vote for,” he said. “She doesn’t seem like a conventional Republican right now. I could be wrong about that. But that’s my impression right now.”
Land led 58%-25% in west Michigan, where she hails from, but Peters enjoyed a sizeable 54%-30% lead in Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties overall — the most populous area of the state. And there were indications that some voters supporting Republican Gov. Rick Snyder for re-election could split their ballots to back Peters.
Among them were results showing that while Land led among voters believing the state was headed in the right direction, her margin among those voters — 51% to 34% for Peters — was less than his 56%-23% lead over her among people who believe the state is headed in the wrong direction.
Peters, meanwhile, had the support of 15% of voters planning to vote for Snyder, compared to 12% of voters planning to back Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Schauer who planned to vote for Land. Among the 15% of voters still undecided in the gubernatorial race, most — 53% — were undecided in the Senate race as well, but Peters held a huge lead — 37%-9% — over the rest.
It indicated there was still plenty of room to woo voters with more than 5 months until the election and the seat getting national interest as Republicans try to recapture the Senate majority. No Republican candidate has won a U.S. Senate seat for Michigan since 1994, however.
Contact TODD SPANGLER at 703-854-8947 or at tspangler@freepress.com |
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Wed May 28, 2014 11:17 am |
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